Forecasting techniques rely on the adage that history




MIS 665 Topic 1 Discussions GCU

MIS 665 Topic 1 DQ 1

Forecasting techniques rely on the adage that history repeats itself. Many times, though, it has been noted that there is no guarantee that historical patterns will repeat and, even if they do, it can be difficult or impossible to predict when a pattern will repeat itself. Provide two time series examples that seemed stable and predictable until there was a significant change to the pattern. Was there a way to predict the pattern change? Explain.

MIS 665 Topic 1 DQ 2

Technically, once a time series model is built, any future value can be forecasted. For example, assume you built a model that forecasts monthly sales of a product given the last 3 months of sales. Using the model, you forecasted monthly sales for the next 6 months, and the model provided very accurate predicted sales.

Your manager wants to use your model to predict sales for the next 5 years. What are some problems that could occur with extending the forecast horizon out that far? How would this affect your confidence in the forecasted values for a year? Five years? Explain.



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